The Mother of All Election Years: a VUCA framework for Germany

2024 has been an extraordinary year in politics. As “the mother of all election years," there were over 60 elections globally, around half of which were in the EU. One common thread was the rise of far-right populism to the forefront of politics. It began with Austria's Freedom Part of Austria securing a victory in February's national election, following Marine Le Pen's National Rally in France surpassing the share of the vote of President Macron's centrist alliance in June, and Germany's Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party riding a populist wave as they head into 2025 elections. By applying the VUCA framework to Germany, the largest economy in the EU, this essay will examine the complexity of the structural inequality in Germany that has driven this political transformation, exploring its current consequences and future implications. 

Right-wing populism is characterized by its strong opposition against immigration and globalization, often associated with nativism and protectionism. The rise of such sentiment has been attributed to multiple causes, with entrenched inequality being a significant driver. Three types of inequality primarily affected Germany's complex political sphere. 

The first is economic inequality. Strong socialist nations like the GDR and the Soviet Union have fallen apart after WWII, leaving capitalism and neo-liberalism unopposed for decades. Hopes for economic justice have arguably been dashed by more "liberal" parties who have given the private sector carte blanche to support immigration as a source of cheap labor for profit maximization. Workers have been displaced by the increasing competition in the workforce due to the influx of immigrants, which has led to a sharp increase in unemployment and concern about refugees taking their economic resources. This has led to the increasing socio-economic gap, which in turn stimulated xenophobic fear among people in Europe. Germany was the only EU country whose citizens selected "immigration" as the issue that has affected them above any other issues, causing the increasing popularity of right-wing populist anti-immigration policies. 

The second is internal regional inequality. Supporters of right-wing populism are often those who have been locked out of the benefits of globalization and growth, a feature we see in Germany. The AfD has seen a rise in popularity in East Germany, specifically in 2024, gaining 5.7% more than in 2019 in Brandenburg's election. This rise can be primarily attributed to the regional inequality experienced by East Germans, which 19% of them felt left behind compared to the West (8%), claiming that life was easier before reunification. The disconnection with the mainstream political parties, especially those associated with elites or internationalism, creates a sense of alienation, thereby making people turn their heads towards populists who promised to restore order and prioritize the "people" over the elite. 

The last type of inequality in Germany is external regional inequality, specifically within the EU. It is helpful to understand the international context of the geopolitical dynamics to examine the rise of right-wing populism across European countries in 2024. Because of the collaborative nature of the EU, policies passed were often aimed at pleasing all 27 countries. This has contributed to situations in which stronger countries are required to allocate their tax revenue to help the weaker countries. Germany continued to hold the title of the largest contributor of €33.8bn to the EU budget in 2023 but also continued to receive a negative net receipt of €235m from the EU. This contrasts significantly with smaller countries such as Estonia, which contributed €355m but received over €1194m from the EU. The dissatisfaction among Germans regarding their unfair financial rudder with the EU has provided a fertile ground for the AfD to push a nationalist, anti-EU agenda, positioning themselves as defenders of German taxpayers. 

Within the VUCA framework, the rise of the AfD party in Germany brought unprecedented political and social volatility. Starting from the beginning of the year, protests against the AfD Party quickly spread throughout the country. About 200,000 people have taken to the streets of Germany in further protests that continued for months against the far-right party. The social chaos created by the opposition to far-right populism has created a volatile environment in which it has become challenging for politicians and voters to anticipate the quickly changing political atmosphere. The mass protest was not unexpected, though; in 2023, there were 86 violent attacks on the party representatives — more than any other party in the country. While we saw a trend of increasing opposition from the left, the rise of populism remains, continuing to stimulate unpredictable consequences. 

Uncertainty is rooted in Europe's fragmentation. As France becomes "ungovernable" with the polarization of extreme political parties and Poland's ruling Law and Justice Party constantly clashes with the EU over important issues, the AfD is posing a threat to European unity. In November, because of the Chancellor's dismissal of Finance Minister Christian Lindner, the ruling three-party coalition that depended on Lindner's pro-business party ended. Domestically, it is unclear where the country's politics will end with the rise of AfD as the second-largest party in many states. The uncertainty is further exacerbated internationally. The populists' push for the Euro's abolishment and "Dexit," claiming that "only through national currencies can each state regain sovereignty," poses a great threat to European unity, creating uncertainty internationally. The AfD's proposals undermine NATO's ability to function as a credible deterrent as they question NATO's core mission and openly embrace China and Russia's rhetoric on sovereignty and nonintervention. This would put Germany and even Europe in an ambiguous yet controversial international position on issues such as the Ukraine-Russia War and the more recent trade war between the US and China, with Trump getting into office in a few weeks on a mandate to change US-NATO and US protectionist policies. 

"What's next?" This is the question many may want to ask. The answer, however, is ambiguous. While political scientists claim that the 24% of far-rightists in the European Parliament cannot directly influence the EU's political and economic agenda, the rise of right-wing populism in the larger countries in Europe can indirectly influence the mainstream parties like what we see with the European Political Party leaning right. Sholz lost a vote of no-confidence, triggering elections in 2025, whilst Macron installed a temporary Prime Minister after a vote of no- confidence in Barnier. Therefore, Germany and France's elections in the coming years matter a lot for the European Parliament's overall composition and political balance. Still, it is ambiguous regarding the development of right-wing populism in Germany, and its impact on Europe and the world is unclear. 

As we enter 2025, the political scene in the world will continue to be shaped by forces of populism and political instability. The election cycles in Poland, Czech Republic, Spain, and Estonia, the return of right-wing "populist" Donald Trump to the White House, and Germany's federal election after the collapse of its "traffic light coalition" are emblematic of the broader trends of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. The future remains uncertain, but the influence of VUCA will undoubtedly continue to play a significant role in shaping the political transformations of the coming years.